The Carter Catastrophe: A Math Equation That Predicts Humanity's End
The equation, known as the Carter Catastrophe, suggests that we should not assume we are in a special region in time or space. It predicts the fall of the Berlin Wall and the longevity of Stonehenge, but its implications for humanity's future are more complex.
The Copernican principle, which states that we are not in a special part of the universe, and the anthropic principle, which suggests that conscious observers like us can only exist in a universe that supports life, are key to this equation. When applied to time, these principles lead to the Carter Catastrophe.
The argument, first presented by Australian astrophysicist Brandon Carter, posits that we should assume a random point in humanity's history for our birth, rather than a special moment like the beginning or end. This is because, over all time, there will be a finite number of humans, and statistically, we should expect to be born at a random point.
J. Richard Gott, an astrophysicist, further developed this idea, showing that the amount of time something has been observable in the past provides a rough guide of its robustness against potential danger and catastrophe, as well as its likelihood of survival into the future.
Gott used this analysis on the fall of the Berlin Wall, demonstrating how the equation works. He also applied it to Stonehenge, which had been there for around 3,900 years, and found that it was still observable.
The Carter Catastrophe has become known as the Doomsday Argument, and it has been used to estimate humanity's path to non-existence. Using a toy model and estimates of the number of humans born so far, Gott suggests that we may not have all that much time left as a species.
However, there are problems with observer classes and the equation's subjectivity to factors like birth rates and life expectancy. While it's an interesting topic, we shouldn't worry about it just yet, as extinction is likely to come after our observation time has ended.
